As the United States of America (USA) announces their 46th president, most countries around the world are also watching and waiting for this momentous event. Will the Democrat party’s candidate, Joe Biden finally snatch the seat from the incumbent US President Donald Trump of Republican? Both are on edge as the tally closes in few more hours.
But the real question lingers on maybe some of you. As Filipinos living in the Philippines, why are we bothered and curious about this election? After all, US is a different country that has different political issues, right? No. The answer is their influence and the infamous neo-imperialism of US to the countries it tied its knots being the superpower it was, ever since winning the recent cold war against Soviet Union. Nevertheless, whosoever may sit in the White Palace as the US president would still affect us.
US and its influences
In context, we have to understand first the idea of neo-imperialism and how it was related to American exceptionalism which some time considered as a hidden strategy. America’s neo-imperialism in foreign affairs has many recognizable manifestations, such as the export of democracy and democratic structures to the developing world, or in countries, torn by instability and conflict. Ikenberry (1999) and Nye (1990) argued that in this modern strategic move to claw-in political decisions outside its country, relating with America’s liberal agenda for human rights, civil freedoms, and social equality, embedded in the very notion of the American dream, the historic juxtaposition between the American dream and its expression as a doctrine of liberal world order has led many to the conclusion, that it was the result of America’s attempt to preserve its position as a political and economic leader.
Effect on Stock Market
Four years have passed, and another leader is set to be elected in the office, the fate of its ties also holds enough influence even to the stock market. According to Ned Davis on his CNBC interview (Gurdus, 2020), the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s (DJIA) average yearly gain since 1900 has been 3.8% when a Democrat is in the White House and 1.1% when a Republican is in the White House. In comparison, the index records its peak average yearly gain of 7.09% under a Republican-led White House and Congress, a 5.21% gain under a Democratic White House and Republican-controlled Congress, and a 2.96% gain under a Democratic White House and Congress, the research shows.
“I think that we overexaggerate the differences between the parties. This is still a capitalist country. It’s still a democracy,” Clissold said. “As long as you have those things in place, capital can be treated fairly well, and investors are rewarded and stocks go up over time.”
Robert Shiller, Sterling professor of economics at Yale University and winner of the 2013 Nobel Prize for Economics said in his “ETF Edge” interview that there was a sense of “danger” in the uncertainty surrounding the election. “I think that our economy is kind of vulnerable because of a bad [atmosphere] and a loss of trust,” he said.
Effect in the Philippines
In Dr. Henry Chan’s column, he said that, “Domestic audience, racial and income inequality, Obamacare, immigration and the Mexican Wall controversy and the Covid-19 debacle are all divisive issues marking the Trump presidency (Chan, 2020),”
“The American influence on the country operates on several layers, the most important of which is the psychologically close affiliation of the Filipinos to the US. It is well known that the trust level of the Filipinos in the US consistently ranks among the highest in the world. This election takes on increasing significance as the Philippines needs a benign regional geopolitical environment to recover from the Covid-19 pandemic and face its own presidential election in 2022 (Chan, 2020).”
In this protractive damage of Covid-19 to the Philippine economy, a benign international cooperation can be very helpful to alleviate this scenario. But with the current China-US geopolitical rivalry posing as greatest threat in the case of our country, we might not be able to navigate the neutral path based on the best interests of the people, which allows it to tap the opportunities that both sides offer. A Trump triumph will pose conflict as the Philippines will be under increasing pressure to take sides in the rivalry between the two giants while in the case of a Biden taking the leadership post, chances of a more subdued belligerence or confrontation will allow the Philippines to focus on economic recovery.
On this on-going uncertainty and challenge of battling an invisible foe, the Filipinos remain calling for competent, urgent actions to contain the disease, at least in the country. Also, to remember that by 2022 Election, the administration takes their toll as people exert power to vote for a new president. Should the US presidency will only deepen the claws of American influence over the Philippines? Only Filipinos will tell.-- Rafael G. Salaguste/The Freehand Feature
References
Chan, H. (2020, October 25). Retrieved from The Manila Times: https://www.manilatimes.net/.../us-elections.../785388/
Gurdus, L. (2020, November 3). Retrieved from CNBC: https://www.cnbc.com/.../2020-election-what-data-since...
Ikenberry, J. (2008). “America’s Security Trap” in US Foreign Policy, Cox, M. and Stokes, D. (ed.), Oxford University Press, pp. 421 – 429
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